NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86ccde9ee449911306b67c4913a33b60be1f17dc2ce8186e9105fcabc2cb5ba1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,260
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 2,593$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.08 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 1,900$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c1…7047backed Over | 59c | 1,697$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.46 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Under | 38c | 757$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Over | 61c | 548.5$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.02 | 126 | 53.2%67 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 35c | 270$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.26 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 42c | 200.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc56…b1b7backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 624 | 47.3%295 W · 329 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…9c06backed Over | 59c | 85.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 101 | 67.3%68 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Over | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1052backed Over | 58c | 45.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da8…60afbacked Under | 42c | 44.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb3…0f2fbacked Over | 59c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de8…0a3bbacked Over | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a7…ac65backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…bb78backed Over | 58c | 17.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb33…4a7cbacked Over | 59c | 17.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5this page
- Blues vs. DucksBlues won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.