NHL · resolved market
Spread: Ducks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d15581ede903f00c51cdddc84e6c4812553e674791454a26872033a5364d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Ducks, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,424
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,424 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Blues | 66c | 2,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680 | 324 | 51.2%166 W · 158 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ducks | 34c | 1,667$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.73 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…600ebacked Ducks | 35c | 984.88$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.08 | 270 | 44.4%120 W · 150 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Blues | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Blues | 65c | 493.75$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.81 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Ducks | 35c | 447.57$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ducks | 33c | 400.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Blues | 66c | 378$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 141 | 40.4%57 W · 84 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Ducks | 8c | 319.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ducks | 29c | 302.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.77 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Blues | 66c | 300$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Ducks | 35c | 288.3$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Ducks | 35c | 257.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.28 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Blues | 65c | 230$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Ducks | 33c | 198.85$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.61 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Blues | 67c | 174.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…a08abacked Ducks | 8c | 170.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Blues | 65c | 160.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Blues | 65c | 153.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Blues | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Ducks | 35c | 128.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.04 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Blues | 64c | 109.31$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Blues | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 979 | 55.5%543 W · 436 L | +21.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Blues | 67c | 74.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Ducks | 33c | 58.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ducks | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Blues | 67c | 52.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Ducks | 32c | 51.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Blues | 68c | 50.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Blues | 68c | 49.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Blues | 67c | 49.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Blues | 78c | 45.68$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Ducks | 33c | 44.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Blues | 67c | 43.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Ducks | 34c | 42.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Ducks | 36c | 35.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Blues | 68c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Blues | 67c | 29.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 169 | 59.8%101 W · 68 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Blues | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Blues | 74c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Blues | 67c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Blues | 67c | 15.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)this page
- Blues vs. DucksBlues won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Blues vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.