Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86cd7868a07a7362fe084dcebfd0ecdb535e5876c6458da2bcb1eb6e2a51d0ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, Hive
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Spirit Academy | 45c | 4,465$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475.6 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Hive | 64c | 1,403$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$902.32 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Hive | 28c | 602.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Spirit Academy | 40c | 600$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…d655backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 497.31$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.39 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Hive | 43c | 433$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.59 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Hive | 51c | 391.4$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.26 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Hive | 53c | 379.56$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.27 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Hive | 79c | 325.44$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.47 | 79 | 64.6%51 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit Academy | 49c | 250$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.5 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…8b45backed Spirit Academy | 62c | 241.72$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Spirit Academy | 35c | 232.87$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.37 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb24f…3432backed Hive | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 137 | 42.3%58 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Spirit Academy | 31c | 188.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Hive | 71c | 167.54$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…d8b8backed Hive | 49c | 135$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 133$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 133$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.42 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Hive | 39c | 124.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Hive | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…2b19backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +11.3wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…9eaebacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…088ebacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…af4dbacked Spirit Academy | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +12.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Hive | 29c | 82.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…8745backed Spirit Academy | 28c | 82.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hive | 53c | 77.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Hive | 25c | 66.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Spirit Academy | 23c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hive | 29c | 44.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Hive | 35c | 39.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f31…a362backed Hive | 60c | 29.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed Spirit Academy | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsHive won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 WinnerHive won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.