Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86eb4ad55b435502f53618d65066904d817c262af3b0cacedd5193d0bbf44d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 55c | 4,056$2,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,228.35 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed Down | 53c | 1,835$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.83 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 55c | 1,703$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.11 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 22c | 1,605$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.48 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…44bcbacked Up | 42c | 1,543$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.29 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 43c | 1,330$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.94 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce6…40dfbacked Up | 9c | 1,311$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bc8…adf7backed Up | 58c | 1,043$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.79 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Up | 53c | 862.81$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 69c | 800$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.6 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 49c | 620$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 40c | 588.72$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.34 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x583b…9249backed Down | 29c | 566.51$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb925…69d4backed Up | 51c | 534.71$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked Down | 53c | 462.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda4…1d82backed Down | 80c | 461.25$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Up | 15c | 444.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked Down | 49c | 432.31$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed Up | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Up | 46c | 397.96$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.61 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34eb…ee4dbacked Down | 46c | 378.09$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed Down | 57c | 304.04$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.84 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc581…6d06backed Up | 22c | 287.37$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…891ebacked Up | 44c | 276.01$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…dacabacked Up | 15c | 255.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Up | 30c | 229.33$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Up | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked Up | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 54c | 150.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Down | 51c | 136.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 48c | 134.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…48a5backed Down | 51c | 127.55$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 57c | 127.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.7 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Down | 49c | 127.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Down | 23c | 113.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +118.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Up | 18c | 108.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c3…404ebacked Up | 70c | 69.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c30…37b7backed Up | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Up | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0e…219dbacked Up | 57c | 39.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Up | 45c | 30.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed Down | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…ba60backed Up | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0493…1177backed Down | 69c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.