Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x873c82bb9b4af70ff32afaa2285c2dc3b118c542ffccb2ea2c091692f79a07c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 63c | 396.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.09 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 29c | 392.16$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.39 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 47c | 218.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.99 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 40c | 171.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.26 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 137.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 65c | 129.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 80c | 125.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 124.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.47 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 115.28$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 104.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…d5f8backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 97.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 65c | 91.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 24c | 91.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 87.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 33c | 83.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe16a…dd6dbacked No | 63c | 79.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 75.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 37c | 69.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 27c | 68.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 28c | 62.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 53c | 45.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 63c | 45.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 62c | 45.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 48c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d05…a379backed Yes | 28c | 44.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +339.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 29c | 44.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 43.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 46c | 43.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 36c | 40.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 37.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 57c | 35.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 34.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae92…329ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 29.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 61c | 29.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc279…f40cbacked Yes | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 54c | 26.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 73c | 25.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 72c | 25.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 63c | 22.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 65c | 20.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed No | 65c | 19.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 55c | 18.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 68c | 17.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.