Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x874611d2cfac371c67743c0e3ad1d6e6c70d07eb00f2304b6180d6551efba841
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,590
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,590 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 61c | 358.15$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 69c | 293.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 291.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 36c | 284.61$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 68c | 252.75$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 32c | 230.95$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 28c | 126.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.37 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 72c | 124.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.19 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 119.35$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff8e…1438backed Yes | 44c | 99.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Yes | 56c | 98.21$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 55c | 95.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 89.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 69c | 86.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 84.54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.48 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 66c | 79.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 66c | 72.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 66c | 68.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 66c | 66.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 42c | 64.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 19c | 63.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 60.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…90a5backed No | 23c | 55.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 52.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 47.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 45.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 44.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed No | 80c | 42.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 80c | 42.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed No | 73c | 41.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed Yes | 66c | 35.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9a…18f9backed Yes | 39c | 30.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 74 | 68.9%51 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 27.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 69c | 27.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 56c | 22.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…622cbacked No | 67c | 21.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 62c | 17.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 74c | 17.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 14.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.