Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x875d1ba99502512d1600737e0a864740552907da409564d7139d14f2c5a0552e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 40c | 22,527$8,948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,947.57 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked No | 68c | 19,670$13,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,310.15 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe47c…1e55backed Yes | 3c | 18,172$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…c34dbacked No | 73c | 9,133$6,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,423.57 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed No | 79c | 4,000$3,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.67 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed Yes | 40c | 3,450$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,089$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 57c | 3,000$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,280.23 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 16c | 2,911$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.96 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 46c | 1,795$823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.74 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615e…5295backed Yes | 3c | 1,486$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 227 | 0.9%2 W · 225 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 74c | 1,439$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.06 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 53c | 1,154$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.68 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…b83abacked No | 73c | 1,000$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 899.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b5…d768backed Yes | 3c | 652.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 609.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 4c | 600.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 599.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 19c | 516$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab6d…b458backed Yes | 3c | 388.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88df…a457backed Yes | 58c | 345$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Yes | 6c | 314.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 32c | 298.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 6c | 287.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x311a…6dfbbacked Yes | 43c | 232.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…77a2backed Yes | 28c | 216.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 19c | 210$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…8330backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 76c | 196.65$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…b882backed No | 67c | 155$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d24…1f77backed Yes | 22c | 76.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65e…3850backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked Yes | 30c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 50c | 59.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 22-28?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.