Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 22-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f60d2bf67f16b56823df42a59f599203b4b5e2e2c9a7f2c71be50f23b9b8cbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 33c | 26,384$8,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,632.08 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…d136backed No | 63c | 14,000$8,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,180 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 23c | 13,821$3,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,211.05 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,100 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…c34dbacked No | 71c | 4,091$2,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.82 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +4.7wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +38%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 40c | 2,954$1,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.29 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 36c | 1,532$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.41 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…13d1backed No | 75c | 1,384$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.08 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d5…dfd8backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa822…64e6backed Yes | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 71c | 940.57$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.53 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 775.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 710$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 694.2$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 70c | 600$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 589.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 5c | 512.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 53c | 489.29$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.87 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 25c | 422$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 4c | 376$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 63c | 350$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.5 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 263.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e1…e083backed Yes | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…cce7backed Yes | 7c | 195.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 56c | 181.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 15c | 138.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 34c | 117.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6da4…975abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec3…5dc7backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…e281backed Yes | 32c | 34.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 22-28?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 22-28?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 22-28?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 22-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.