NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8786df247b7638b81a2baf8f4a34fc5782bc0c12ed49f2f4999bd37c4e48fefa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabresof Sabres, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3d5…7ca1backed Sabres | 44c | 4,680$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.16 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Blackhawks | 56c | 3,446$1,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,945.77 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Blackhawks | 56c | 2,231$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,249.49 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Blackhawks | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 204 | 50%102 W · 102 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…a4c5backed Sabres | 48c | 1,078$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.32 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Sabres | 45c | 973.71$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.35 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Sabres | 44c | 966.4$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.18 | 154 | 31.8%49 W · 105 L | -12.4wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Blackhawks | 56c | 794.64$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Sabres | 44c | 749.74$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.86 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed Sabres | 44c | 731.39$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.58 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Blackhawks | 66c | 500$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Blackhawks | 56c | 489.26$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.25 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Sabres | 44c | 447.24$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.63 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Blackhawks | 56c | 408.32$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.66 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Blackhawks | 56c | 400$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Blackhawks | 56c | 376.05$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.59 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Sabres | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 749 | 51.8%388 W · 361 L | +18.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…24f3backed Blackhawks | 58c | 261.25$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Sabres | 41c | 260.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.08 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa17b…009abacked Sabres | 44c | 256.1$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Blackhawks | 57c | 245.14$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 97 | 57.7%56 W · 41 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Sabres | 43c | 221.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.38 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Blackhawks | 56c | 220$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Sabres | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 42c | 191.59$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Sabres | 43c | 186.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.36 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Sabres | 36c | 174.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Blackhawks | 58c | 170.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Sabres | 36c | 140.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Sabres | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Sabres | 42c | 124$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Blackhawks | 64c | 120$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Blackhawks | 57c | 116.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 363 | 49%178 W · 185 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Sabres | 44c | 98.84$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Sabres | 45c | 58.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 719 | 52.4%377 W · 342 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Sabres | 44c | 57.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Blackhawks | 72c | 56.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…4db6backed Blackhawks | 57c | 52.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blackhawks | 64c | 52.34$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Blackhawks | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Blackhawks | 63c | 48.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924d…3429backed Sabres | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Sabres | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Sabres | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…adbabacked Sabres | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…155bbacked Sabres | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Sabres | 56c | 41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…f414backed Blackhawks | 57c | 40.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Blackhawks | 32c | 39.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Blackhawks | 56c | 36.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Sabres | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Blackhawks | 56c | 31.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Sabres | 72c | 24.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Blackhawks | 72c | 20.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae40…9edabacked Blackhawks | 58c | 19.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Blackhawks | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. BlackhawksSabres won
- Sabres vs. Blackhawks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.