NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8794d0db38eac29cad8c203356c52841e4c4b5ac8cd87fa9bc8c9c0998c5e372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,756 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 64c | 1,039$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.41 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 36c | 939.06$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 553.15$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.63 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 63c | 386$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.88 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 383.69$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.08 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e49…fb01backed Under | 63c | 365.08$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 37c | 325.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 40c | 309.92$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 245.49$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.74 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 46c | 165.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.89 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Over | 61c | 114.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Under | 63c | 103.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 38c | 102.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 96.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.02 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 41c | 82.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.17 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…4a4ebacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…2b82backed Under | 60c | 66.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…1f45backed Over | 50c | 59.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 58c | 52.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…d7c3backed Over | 44c | 45.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 49c | 39.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 39.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…2e44backed Under | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 41c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4c…394abacked Under | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Over | 41c | 33.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda1…454fbacked Under | 56c | 30.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…e4eabacked Under | 56c | 30.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…39b7backed Under | 52c | 30.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 37c | 29.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 48c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 913 | 34.1%311 W · 602 L | -27.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 38c | 26.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6436…aa37backed Under | 55c | 20.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -14.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…ba10backed Under | 56c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 56c | 20.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 56c | 20.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 60c | 20.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Rangers vs. FlyersRangers won
- Rangers vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Flyers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.