Champions League · resolved market
FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87a3e99763b3bbf612ca17e6dce9ee8263cc32a8d2994afc1865d9e1666c86fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 62c | 2,135$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.94 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 2,128$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.64 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 79c | 1,497$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.49 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.1wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +44%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 1,450$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 52c | 927.48$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.92 | 915 | 37.6%344 W · 571 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Over | 30c | 672.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.28 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…9d72backed Under | 63c | 463.86$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 49c | 377.55$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 51c | 279.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 886 | 31.7%281 W · 605 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Over | 25c | 225.47$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Over | 30c | 225$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 44c | 224.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 723 | 35.5%257 W · 466 L | -28.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3b…28bdbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 51c | 172.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574f…6849backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 60c | 122.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 35c | 113.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 12c | 111.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 20c | 105.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 72c | 104.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 50c | 99.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Under | 51c | 99.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 44c | 84.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 214 | 43.9%94 W · 120 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x834c…593abacked Over | 25c | 80.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 53c | 79.62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 48c | 78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 49c | 63.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…22d8backed Under | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 50c | 42.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…da2fbacked Under | 40c | 41.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 47cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 50c | 31.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 49c | 24.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0bd8backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 2.5this page
- FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 0.5Over won
- FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 1.5Over won
- FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 3.5Under won
- FK Vardar Skopje vs. Kuopion PS: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FK Vardar Skopje (-1.5)Kuopion PS won
- Spread: Kuopion PS (-1.5)Kuopion PS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.