MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87b7c1484a94350ef386525ff8df7ab37b9400d5a8b257755286e2b4484d1e64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 47c | 2,906$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.23 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 52c | 2,719$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.07 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 48c | 2,563$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.76 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 51c | 2,154$1,108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.31 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 53c | 2,120$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.79 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Over | 48c | 1,758$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 1,065$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.62 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 1,055$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.9 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 68c | 996.47$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 32c | 800.95$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.69 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Under | 50c | 787$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.5 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 35c | 642.69$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.94 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 35c | 621.83$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Over | 53c | 550.07$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.54 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 453.99$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.07 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 51c | 401.05$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.54 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd7…eac9backed Under | 49c | 387.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac4…a601backed Over | 53c | 275.04$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.77 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 224.67$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…bc54backed Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over | 42c | 158.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088a…9ee7backed Under | 66c | 153.71$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 51c | 132.24$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 50c | 95.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 52c | 92.28$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 47c | 83.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 49c | 67.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 55.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 35c | 42.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdba8…5d91backed Under | 49c | 40.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 226 | 50.4%114 W · 112 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 50c | 35.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 42c | 32.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 54c | 32.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 26.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 495 | 40.2%199 W · 296 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 54c | 25.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Over | 55c | 19.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.