MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x884523bc7a5b97477586cb359c6d1c9300119e6c43e1f5db1b25e6c0f6483fc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,935
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,935 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 3,357$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.66 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 2,118$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.42 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 53c | 1,266$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.28 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,218$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.15 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 938.96$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 819.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 558.38$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.87 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 51c | 525.85$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.66 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 46c | 472.89$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.13 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 17c | 355$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Under | 54c | 295.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.68 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 73c | 274.38$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 27c | 244.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d3…3128backed Over | 46c | 184.78$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 53c | 151$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 69c | 137.98$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.29 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 17c | 112.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e9…d331backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 99.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 56c | 71.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 54c | 62.64$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 29c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 30c | 48.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 53c | 47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 54c | 45.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 52c | 45.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb19d…146cbacked Over | 45c | 33.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 53c | 25.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x678a…ac4dbacked Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 44c | 22.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 19.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Atlanta Braves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.