TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Spread: Xavier Musketeers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Creighton Bluejaysof Xavier Musketeers, Creighton Bluejays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,395
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,395 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Creighton Bluejays45c4,014$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,190.0912,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Xavier Musketeers54c1,993$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.121,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Xavier Musketeers55c1,629$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.951,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Xavier Musketeers55c392.55$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.95152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Xavier Musketeers56c231.54$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13045351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Creighton Bluejays46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Creighton Bluejays44c198$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.884,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Creighton Bluejays47c180$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.45147.1%24 W · 27 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9061…9510backed Creighton Bluejays45c170$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.57146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Xavier Musketeers56c165$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.463551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Creighton Bluejays45c140$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Creighton Bluejays46c133.13$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.8949043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Xavier Musketeers54c130.43$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.435450%27 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Creighton Bluejays46c130$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.25,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd2a8…4130backed Xavier Musketeers55c109.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4844…9c83backed Creighton Bluejays47c101$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.533151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Creighton Bluejays45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556544.6%29 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0c0…07d8backed Creighton Bluejays45c80$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445844.8%26 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9773…67e8backed Creighton Bluejays44c80$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.85337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1488…0672backed Creighton Bluejays47c79$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.875253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32d6…844bbacked Creighton Bluejays45c69$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.957060%42 W · 28 L+6.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd595…7893backed Xavier Musketeers55c58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.92548%12 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Creighton Bluejays47c55$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.158756.3%49 W · 38 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Xavier Musketeers54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2773549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…148bbacked Xavier Musketeers55c47$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce01…5c2abacked Xavier Musketeers53c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.851861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed Xavier Musketeers55c43$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.653641.7%15 W · 21 L-3.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda54…dcaabacked Xavier Musketeers53c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.792254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd289…98b5backed Xavier Musketeers53c43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.792441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Creighton Bluejays46c42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.482,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Creighton Bluejays45c42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.17245.8%33 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x870f…08ebbacked Xavier Musketeers55c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb736…1946backed Xavier Musketeers55c36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.84148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8358…956bbacked Xavier Musketeers55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.253455.9%19 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f33…8f17backed Xavier Musketeers55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.254355.8%24 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe11a…d47ebacked Xavier Musketeers55c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.73964.1%25 W · 14 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+17.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x080f…c226backed Xavier Musketeers55c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.71833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-22%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Creighton Bluejays43c33.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.125,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Xavier Musketeers55c33.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2413342.1%56 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe105…8a2dbacked Xavier Musketeers55c33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.152948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d9…a94bbacked Creighton Bluejays44c32$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.925054%27 W · 23 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x063c…d642backed Xavier Musketeers56c31$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.362965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3bc9…801ebacked Xavier Musketeers53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92128.6%6 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xabb7…7959backed Xavier Musketeers53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.92548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd17…77fdbacked Xavier Musketeers53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dcf…4028backed Xavier Musketeers53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.94060%24 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe166…edcebacked Xavier Musketeers53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+18.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Xavier Musketeers55c29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.952646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11a4…bbe8backed Xavier Musketeers53c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.842755.6%15 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e44…3cefbacked Xavier Musketeers55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.42955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa60c…b395backed Xavier Musketeers53c27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.313161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe4b…fa4cbacked Xavier Musketeers55c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.33043.3%13 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04a1…6b2dbacked Xavier Musketeers53c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.722060%12 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8204…61d9backed Xavier Musketeers56c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.443148.4%15 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf340…6224backed Xavier Musketeers53c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.662653.8%14 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a6…7ed2backed Xavier Musketeers56c22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Xavier Musketeers53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.662753%332 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d0…9b74backed Xavier Musketeers55c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.453644.4%16 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.