Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88477c123c3a99fd208eaaa76d2fdaf0ddd2a07fb3b4146aef12705657261139
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 42c | 416$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.58 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 24c | 300.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 21c | 299.21$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 41c | 227.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 12c | 216.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 26c | 193.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 27c | 190.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 181.83$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.78 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3514…e337backed Yes | 13c | 178.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 32c | 163.35$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 22c | 156.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 155.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 78c | 151.62$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 22c | 151.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 29c | 141.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 77c | 121.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 21c | 110.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked No | 18c | 96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 26c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 34c | 84.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 60c | 83.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked No | 23c | 82.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 82.57$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 75.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 77c | 75.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 64.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 59.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 59.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed Yes | 75c | 58.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 72c | 58.03$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 55.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 27c | 53.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 63c | 51.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 26c | 50.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 28c | 50.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed Yes | 72c | 48.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 78c | 45.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked Yes | 73c | 40.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 43c | 40.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 39c | 37.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…ec7bbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 42c | 32.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 44c | 31.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 70c | 30.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 60c | 29.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 35c | 29.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 29.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c0…e88fbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 43c | 24.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 49c | 23.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed Yes | 80c | 22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a0…f156backed No | 69c | 18.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 97 | 62.9%61 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 18.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 80c | 16.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 76c | 13.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.