Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd794ec1a93607425733a45441d726ba7d7d6cc885755bb57944cb2eda3716293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedee…7139backed Yes | 35c | 973.02$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.93 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 426.05$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 6c | 300.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 25c | 238.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da9…13dfbacked Yes | 38c | 199.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 30c | 188.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 64c | 181.83$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 168.93$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.41 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 157.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked No | 35c | 143$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 74c | 134.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed No | 25c | 130.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 129.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 119.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 110.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 58c | 106.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.92 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed No | 39c | 103.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 76c | 93.78$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed No | 33c | 84.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 32c | 83.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 62c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 67.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed Yes | 70c | 66.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed Yes | 60c | 65.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked Yes | 36c | 55.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…eae4backed No | 38c | 53.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 33c | 47.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 42c | 47.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 39c | 46.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 58c | 45.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked Yes | 62c | 45.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 62c | 44.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b2…954fbacked No | 38c | 42.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 37c | 40.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…18fcbacked No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked Yes | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed Yes | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 38.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed Yes | 60c | 36.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 62c | 36.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed Yes | 62c | 34.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked No | 40c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed No | 41c | 30.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 39c | 30.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed No | 40c | 29.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 57c | 27.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 27.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 57c | 26.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…be53backed No | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 59c | 25.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed Yes | 57c | 24.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 66c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 63c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7296…69f5backed Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +311.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…7a98backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 64c | 17.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.