Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x884b580baee9fcdc8f667e4db8dc5b01c230e324a2d04e6b4b8de7e10d513f50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,813
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 3c | 926.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 905.39$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 11c | 835.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 10c | 781.84$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a13…69f2backed Yes | 3c | 661.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 654.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 628.89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 3c | 506.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 6c | 489.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 10c | 447.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 8c | 434.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 406.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 3c | 406.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 6c | 344.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…093dbacked Yes | 8c | 326.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1634…d0b1backed Yes | 10c | 178.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd16f…2badbacked Yes | 11c | 161.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 9c | 157.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes | 15c | 139.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…c17abacked Yes | 10c | 123.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed Yes | 13c | 121.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 10c | 119.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 13c | 102$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 11c | 91.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe509…7387backed Yes | 23c | 72.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 14c | 70.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 63.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 19c | 55.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 76c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 20.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.