Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x040cd320d0bf9ea26486f0a932bc710ff81dce6ee62eca8bba0534b97f1ef827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked No | 3c | 66,112$2,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181.73 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 0c | 12,251$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 4c | 899.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…bc56backed No | 5c | 802.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 8c | 628.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 10c | 548.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 7c | 401.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 9c | 393.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b6…676fbacked No | 14c | 355.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5208…ec3abacked No | 4c | 351.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 11c | 347.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 20c | 279.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 258.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 12c | 249.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 79c | 208.32$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 9c | 206.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 58c | 194.52$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.13 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 6c | 190.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 29c | 179.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed No | 45c | 178.16$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 10c | 156.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 18c | 136.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 71c | 132.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 15c | 131.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 77c | 128.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 74c | 125.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 15c | 119.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 70c | 115.69$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 79c | 113.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 14c | 104.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 93.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 32c | 92.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 54c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 27c | 87.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9671…548dbacked Yes | 76c | 81.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b153backed No | 17c | 81.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 33c | 79.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…4785backed Yes | 57c | 69.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 31c | 63.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed No | 20c | 61.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 56c | 60.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf4…b597backed No | 23c | 57.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 56c | 41.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…2f74backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 146 | 17.1%25 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 70c | 34.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 32.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 62c | 30.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 71c | 30.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd1…372abacked Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed Yes | 52c | 28.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 64c | 27.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 63c | 22.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 50c | 21.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 72c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcb…c018backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1c…6aeabacked Yes | 79c | 18.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.