Premier League · resolved market
Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x889fde34a1e83ca7aff06274075d94c885b2a8144ff66baf219c5cef2529df7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 41c | 1,558$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.12 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 65c | 1,209$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.63 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 59c | 362$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.51 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…3e5cbacked Under | 52c | 312.83$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 23c | 299.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 150 | 30.7%46 W · 104 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 61c | 107.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 35c | 103.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 65c | 83.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 35c | 79.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 29c | 74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 72.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 69.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 33c | 42.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93c1…5981backed Under | 63c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 66c | 21.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Derby County FC vs. Sheffield United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.