Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88bac726ef83abc4fa6f869489e385cafc9a1cf5728a3f813aa49fff2a44b84e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x890a…ea10backed No | 0c | 11,642$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 56c | 899.02$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.45 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 43c | 307.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 19c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 37c | 245.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 43c | 118.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 41c | 103$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 86.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 41c | 75.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 69.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 39c | 63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 59.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 42c | 57.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 40c | 56.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 46c | 55.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 38c | 50.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 37c | 35.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 35c | 32.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 38c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 23.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 66c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 69°F or below on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.