MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x893672fb906737ba9c64b462473f31553d124b121e5691f911decd8d0d48e7fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed New York Mets | 39c | 9,417$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,680.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 9,260$5,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,611.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 2,632$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,052.71 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed New York Mets | 40c | 1,230$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.86 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 1,211$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed New York Mets | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed New York Mets | 40c | 737.88$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.15 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed New York Mets | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed New York Mets | 40c | 127.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Cincinnati Reds | 16c | 75.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed New York Mets | 40c | 73.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed New York Mets | 40c | 28.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed New York Mets | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6796…453fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 704 | 50.1%353 W · 351 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.