MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91a52f46c0612ea79014380fbcbd72106c891b3bc658d8103007fadb066db269
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24a5…5d07backed No | 58c | 3,300$1,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,905.26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Yes | 42c | 1,318$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.7 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 42c | 1,300$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +31.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,092$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.6 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 44c | 999.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 54c | 941.81$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.94 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc908…2f61backed No | 55c | 935.78$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.77 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Yes | 46c | 399.98$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.99 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes | 42c | 208$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 57c | 194.09$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.78 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 49c | 181.41$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.74 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 52c | 144.97$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked No | 54c | 111.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…bef4backed No | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…4967backed No | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…30b6backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 40c | 77.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 52c | 58.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 50c | 57.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 51.5%69 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…1fafbacked No | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 40c | 32.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 25.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 45c | 23.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 47c | 23.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 1,828 | 54.1%989 W · 839 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 48c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Redsthis page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.