MLB · resolved market
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dd4bbb808801de8a87bc82da69a95de4af9178d63f4a7fdf04207a6c5e612a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 9,361$5,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,123.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 9,182$4,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 1,893$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 45c | 1,095$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.6 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 53c | 1,085$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.66 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 50c | 999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 3c | 805$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 591.37$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 47c | 350.31$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 45c | 333$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.85 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 35c | 315$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 234.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.66 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 47c | 227.21$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 54c | 127.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 113.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 56c | 102.39$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 44c | 102.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 46c | 95.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 50c | 91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 52c | 81.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Under | 45c | 71.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 49c | 47.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 48c | 34.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 37c | 34.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Under | 45c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Under | 76c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5this page
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.