TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$400,771
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$425,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $400,771 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e94…5ba1backed New York Mets45c223,304$100,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100,075.9246949%230 W · 239 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6754…e3bcbacked Cincinnati Reds55c80,126$44,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,056.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cincinnati Reds56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,80060451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Cincinnati Reds55c20,000$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0002,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Cincinnati Reds55c16,329$8,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,355.523,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds71c15,397$10,867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,530.6211,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b4…10dabacked Cincinnati Reds55c13,986$7,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,293.8219950.3%100 W · 99 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds58c13,616$7,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,745.652,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed New York Mets39c13,356$5,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,256.1214042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Cincinnati Reds56c13,307$7,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,855.041,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b88…8f33backed Cincinnati Reds56c13,000$7,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,72044851.6%231 W · 217 L+0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed New York Mets45c11,111$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00098149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Cincinnati Reds55c11,080$6,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,98610547.6%50 W · 55 L+9.9wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds70c8,719$6,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,580.4610,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed New York Mets16c8,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.9922047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New York Mets0c6,600$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.88762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Cincinnati Reds55c6,082$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.992054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets45c5,415$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.176,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81e…e3d0backed Cincinnati Reds55c5,082$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,286.7232251.6%166 W · 156 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8005,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets36c3,569$1,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.724,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked New York Mets11c2,666$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.798,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed New York Mets44c2,273$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001,21547.6%578 W · 637 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Cincinnati Reds55c2,220$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99925149.8%125 W · 126 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed New York Mets7c1,941$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4795045.2%429 W · 521 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Cincinnati Reds55c1,818$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.1889153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked New York Mets44c1,750$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.4275248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Cincinnati Reds55c1,500$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67544451.1%227 W · 217 L+1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.962,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…6623backed Cincinnati Reds55c1,300$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58539846.5%185 W · 213 L-16.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Cincinnati Reds55c1,277$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.7614047.1%66 W · 74 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2354…20d0backed New York Mets1c1,255$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.964043.5%14 W · 390 L-19.4wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-59.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6871…e9dcbacked New York Mets44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006139.3%24 W · 37 L-6.7wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Cincinnati Reds57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.6332850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdab1…623dbacked New York Mets2c1,025$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed New York Mets6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6012450%62 W · 62 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds55c1,000$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4501,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4dd…23ffbacked New York Mets46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46039440.9%161 W · 233 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked New York Mets46c973.78$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.9448147%226 W · 255 L-31.8wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcba5…cd88backed Cincinnati Reds55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0966050.2%331 W · 329 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed Cincinnati Reds55c909.09$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.0932157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb5…d57abacked Cincinnati Reds54c884.03$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.6621644.9%97 W · 119 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb90c…775abacked Cincinnati Reds56c881.14$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb6…a2fcbacked New York Mets7c805.68$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607514.7%11 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Cincinnati Reds55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe292…84b8backed New York Mets45c800$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3561,40243.1%604 W · 798 L+4.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds55c800$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3609,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked New York Mets2c797$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1326315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked New York Mets7c750$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5517417.2%30 W · 144 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed New York Mets13c719$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.0140043%172 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Cincinnati Reds55c680.13$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.061,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked New York Mets8c650$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5326618.4%49 W · 217 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds55c643$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.352,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked New York Mets2c627.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5570737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked New York Mets10c580$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5882636.6%302 W · 524 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked New York Mets45c555.56$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25022153.4%118 W · 103 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed New York Mets44c552$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.882,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafac…8730backed New York Mets45c533.33$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406152.5%32 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+18.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x186a…559dbacked Cincinnati Reds57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3214457.6%83 W · 61 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Cincinnati Reds56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22032850%164 W · 164 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Cincinnati Reds55c499.99$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22521653.2%115 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed New York Mets3c444.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed Cincinnati Reds56c430$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcda3…36cfbacked New York Mets45c420$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.91,31043.6%571 W · 739 L+13.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda74…2dd7backed New York Mets45c420$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.91,27743.1%550 W · 727 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7736…6f6abacked New York Mets40c404.04$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1604841.7%20 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x136c…d723backed Cincinnati Reds55c400$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+43.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Cincinnati Reds57c360$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.848354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New York Mets43c349.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.51,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…67a1backed Cincinnati Reds57c347.37$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.3737052.2%193 W · 177 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Cincinnati Reds57c343.56$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7318860.1%113 W · 75 L+12.4wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07e2…4b9cbacked New York Mets10c335.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5527450.7%139 W · 135 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked New York Mets46c326.09$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020552.7%108 W · 97 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x58d5…8898backed New York Mets45c320$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.41,20543%518 W · 687 L+4.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Cincinnati Reds56c300$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13258652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…fbebbacked Cincinnati Reds59c270.32$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.443560%261 W · 174 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Cincinnati Reds55c267.86$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5438444.3%170 W · 214 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x708d…8a09backed Cincinnati Reds57c260$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.82544%11 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56a8…3406backed Cincinnati Reds56c246.12$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.291258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb43e…8200backed New York Mets45c240.46$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2122744.9%102 W · 125 L+11.5wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Cincinnati Reds55c227.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2732350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0612…559abacked Cincinnati Reds55c224$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.861250.5%309 W · 303 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15f4…ee73backed New York Mets7c222.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked New York Mets46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39dc…fc23backed New York Mets5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1065651.2%336 W · 320 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked New York Mets45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed New York Mets46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9238142%160 W · 221 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked New York Mets46c196.39$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3428045.7%128 W · 152 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed New York Mets14c193.31$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0684140.2%338 W · 503 L-3.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed New York Mets44c188.65$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.7531958.6%187 W · 132 L+27.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa79a…d72abacked New York Mets46c186.96$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8615848.1%76 W · 82 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed Cincinnati Reds55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8226245.8%120 W · 142 L-17.7wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb0d…9efebacked Cincinnati Reds55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.82540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…7398backed New York Mets45c180$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.165542.4%278 W · 377 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0400…dc87backed Cincinnati Reds56c179.66$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.051145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf3f…1365backed Cincinnati Reds56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5715159.6%90 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07aa…63bfbacked Cincinnati Reds56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5719358%112 W · 81 L+0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2174…e13abacked Cincinnati Reds56c173.8$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.471353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Cincinnati Reds55c170.91$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.918754%47 W · 40 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.