TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$217,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$217,796

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Over52c94,459$48,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,773.1550153.5%268 W · 233 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bff…fc26backed Under48c75,306$36,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,146.7643647%205 W · 231 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over53c40,710$21,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,985.871,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under49c23,796$11,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,654.1111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under50c19,734$9,866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,866.253,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Over50c19,168$9,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,583.8355053.1%292 W · 258 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Over49c16,108$7,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,215.3328350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under46c15,858$7,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,347.5410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3501,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c10,030$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,233.758,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under49c4,122$2,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,035.664,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over73c4,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under40c3,759$1,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.0912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over52c3,170$1,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,527.076,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Under49c3,008$1,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.9233554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Over49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53024651.6%127 W · 119 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over49c2,200$1,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12286653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Under49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00049158.9%289 W · 202 L+30.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9605,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over52c1,667$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.161,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3c7…d601backed Under48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010750.5%54 W · 53 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5453…65cebacked Under48c1,042$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011848.3%57 W · 61 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Under50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over49c959.86$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.5389153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Under53c949.06$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50038353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5102…7b08backed Under49c816.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under50c798$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.013,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under51c750$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3809,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under50c719.87$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.6347350.7%240 W · 233 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under49c714$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.861,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed Under49c699.27$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.6461450.8%312 W · 302 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Under45c600$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2704148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under28c599$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.724,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over52c520$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.61,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Under48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24021653.2%115 W · 101 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Under48c450$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under50c420$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2102,29051%1,167 W · 1,123 L+23.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb767…d848backed Under49c408$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9211662.9%73 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Over49c307$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5772648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3f6…bab8backed Under48c306.25$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14713951.8%72 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under47c305.45$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.936,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe231…93a5backed Under51c300$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15310846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Under52c288.46$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4638252.1%199 W · 183 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f7a…0f82backed Under49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.57044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under48c209.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.791,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaab4…5a40backed Over49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0816251.9%84 W · 78 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Under49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9899447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed3…274cbacked Over51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.0858649.5%290 W · 296 L+0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6865248.3%315 W · 337 L+1.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa8…0b19backed Over51c185.39$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.8440554.8%222 W · 183 L+17.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under47c177.82$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.171,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under50c159.98$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.382,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Under49c152.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.743545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d1…a991backed Under44c151.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674951%25 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Under49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.530048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under49c150$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.526845.9%123 W · 145 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under49c128.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.021,57248.3%759 W · 813 L-6.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Under50c122.57$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.291,56951.1%801 W · 768 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under51c110.41$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.312,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed Over48c105.43$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8269351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under21c102.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over56c94.72$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.081,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Under47c92.6$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6669447.6%330 W · 364 L-9.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2725…e7d1backed Under48c90$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.235849.4%177 W · 181 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9569…79febacked Under50c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Over51c86.86$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5627146.9%127 W · 144 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over52c80$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.477050.5%389 W · 381 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over51c72.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5945246.2%209 W · 243 L-18.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under47c66.92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.661,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Over51c65.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9251555.7%287 W · 228 L+19.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over53c62.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5934942.7%149 W · 200 L-19.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8956…755fbacked Under48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3021656%121 W · 95 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Under48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304151.2%21 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…c435backed Under48c62.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3011044.5%49 W · 61 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over51c62.12$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4431446.8%147 W · 167 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1137…cbffbacked Over50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Under48c55$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.424749%121 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked Over51c53.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.226753.9%144 W · 123 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under49c50.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.778155.6%434 W · 347 L+28.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed95…889cbacked Under51c49.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66c0…5fc2backed Over53c45.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2825256.7%143 W · 109 L+9.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed Under51c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9525850.4%130 W · 128 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba17…5c67backed Under49c45$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.057646.1%35 W · 41 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under50c44.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.013,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over61c42.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.628,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f02…823dbacked Over49c40.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.825554.5%30 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa129…0838backed Under49c40.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L-3.3wins-0.33per pick43cpaid-82.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Over51c40.57$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8854152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Under50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.911,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb155…ca84backed Under44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.635248%169 W · 183 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over51c38.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.831,26951.1%648 W · 621 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56ac…fcc5backed Over53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.744348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc846…c413backed Under47c36$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9253950.6%273 W · 266 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed Over51c35.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5718353.6%98 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bc…3503backed Under49c35.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.315757.9%33 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e62…79f1backed Under45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1542047.9%201 W · 219 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.