CS2 · resolved market
Will Furia win IEM Rio 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x894947cdacf9cb29386d963a1fd71a9d69ad6cc37b4059e7817cdfa741137dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 1c | 2,222$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,712$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…563dbacked Yes | 3c | 966.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…e197backed Yes | 2c | 588.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 6c | 508.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb857…ca62backed Yes | 20c | 485.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed Yes | 7c | 455.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 28c | 214.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…8e2fbacked Yes | 18c | 109.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -9.6wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0c…862abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd0…955fbacked Yes | 17c | 63.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2992…44c8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Furia win IEM Rio 2024?this page
- Will Astralis win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Complexity win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Eternal Fire win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Faze Clan win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will G2 Esports win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Heroic win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Mouz win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2024?Yes won
- Will Pain Gaming win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Team Liquid win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Team Vitality win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will The Mongolz win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Virtus.pro win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will another team win IEM Rio 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.