CS2 · resolved market
Will Mouz win IEM Rio 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd8c343e89673b1cbc04ec2e2fc8e5da276f10fa1aca8167afd194d49199ffa2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,065
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8842…d3a7backed Yes | 0c | 15,895$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 38c | 3,177$1,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.03 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -9.6wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…fb94backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Yes | 9c | 1,447$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.86 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…db6ebacked Yes | 25c | 769.8$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.03 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 9c | 552.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…0ea8backed Yes | 40c | 490$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.6 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 73c | 340$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Yes | 19c | 300$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 24c | 192.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…23a2backed Yes | 24c | 162$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 45c | 132.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b46…b5f4backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023e…a94dbacked Yes | 9c | 114.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d9…e173backed Yes | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…59d1backed Yes | 42c | 109.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…1046backed Yes | 42c | 99.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed No | 80c | 75.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 74c | 75.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 567 | 38.8%220 W · 347 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 22c | 67.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6219backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed No | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x236a…3870backed Yes | 23c | 43.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…48e8backed No | 60c | 41.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…3821backed Yes | 42c | 41.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…86e3backed Yes | 42c | 32.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8810…2677backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mouz win IEM Rio 2024?this page
- Will Astralis win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Complexity win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Eternal Fire win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Faze Clan win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Furia win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will G2 Esports win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Heroic win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Natus Vincere win IEM Rio 2024?Yes won
- Will Pain Gaming win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Team Liquid win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Team Vitality win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will The Mongolz win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will Virtus.pro win IEM Rio 2024?No won
- Will another team win IEM Rio 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.