MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89667d2e76f872186c022acc42a6419c2fab9d672da8efd8dae81d16905636ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 51c | 3,186$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.78 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 53c | 1,778$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$942.37 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.61 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 49c | 724.22$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 53c | 641.75$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.13 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 551.02$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.95 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 49c | 491.77$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 417.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.02 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 18c | 388.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -11.2wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 49c | 387.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Under | 52c | 216.17$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 47c | 215.56$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.25 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 47c | 214.26$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 47c | 213.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.02 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 49c | 205$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 15c | 154.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 335 | 15.5%52 W · 283 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 138$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 48c | 135.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 117.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 117.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 109.8$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Under | 52c | 93.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 47c | 85.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 47c | 83.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 54c | 70.23$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked Over | 50c | 60.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…d63bbacked Over | 53c | 60.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 47c | 58.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 53c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 47c | 23.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Over | 47c | 23.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 258 | 51.9%134 W · 124 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 59c | 19.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Over | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.