MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce371ac9bf89f110ff1385f122d898c13cb43e61f512b741340dbe1e3a752ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Detroit Tigers, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Detroit Tigers | 15c | 378.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Detroit Tigers | 39c | 296.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.72 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Detroit Tigers | 37c | 182.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 160.1$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.44 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 140.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 128.08$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 120.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 120.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.83 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 15c | 103.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 78.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 56.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Detroit Tigers | 39c | 32.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 25.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 22.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 13.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-5.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-6.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.