College Football · resolved market
Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippi
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896862dd2236de83cb55b3b73faa7e60a73a483299a7516f83be87809357df89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Southern Mississippiof Appalachian State, Southern Mississippi
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Appalachian State | 52c | 4,971$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,592.49 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Southern Mississippi | 75c | 3,874$2,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.56 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Appalachian State | 25c | 3,801$951 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.12 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Southern Mississippi | 38c | 3,508$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,174.96 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Appalachian State | 62c | 1,619$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.63 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Southern Mississippi | 75c | 891$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.95 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Southern Mississippi | 39c | 719.82$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.01 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Southern Mississippi | 75c | 690.17$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Appalachian State | 59c | 637$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.83 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Southern Mississippi | 66c | 417.63$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.55 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Appalachian State | 18c | 406.31$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Southern Mississippi | 40c | 395.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.92 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Southern Mississippi | 39c | 370.32$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.14 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Appalachian State | 28c | 300$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.51 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…95f3backed Southern Mississippi | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 75cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Appalachian State | 61c | 245.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Appalachian State | 46c | 241.67$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Appalachian State | 29c | 198.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Southern Mississippi | 38c | 162.65$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…0d7fbacked Appalachian State | 50c | 144$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Appalachian State | 62c | 139.13$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a29…c0b6backed Appalachian State | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860b…a80fbacked Appalachian State | 61c | 106.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed Appalachian State | 57c | 102.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Southern Mississippi | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…19cbbacked Appalachian State | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77cd…5a13backed Southern Mississippi | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Southern Mississippi | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Appalachian State | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Appalachian State | 61c | 62.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Appalachian State | 60c | 60.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Southern Mississippi | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Southern Mississippi | 39c | 58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x565b…fa9bbacked Southern Mississippi | 80c | 56.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Southern Mississippi | 79c | 50.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Southern Mississippi | 37c | 36.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Appalachian State | 59c | 36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Appalachian State | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Appalachian State | 60c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed Southern Mississippi | 39c | 28.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…047fbacked Southern Mississippi | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Appalachian State | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Appalachian State | 52c | 24.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Appalachian State | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…2db8backed Appalachian State | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Southern Mississippi | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Appalachian State vs. Southern Mississippithis page
- Spread: Appalachian State (-3.5)Southern Mississippi won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.