Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x897e633a3ec749ca537641ca52cf6399b3832db1d206fcca3ac6c7df0a1f76dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,204
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,204 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc55f…d26abacked Yes | 59c | 519.81$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.87 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d6…4e03backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 3cpaid | +471.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 70c | 484.04$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.59 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 22c | 450.08$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…ed95backed Yes | 69c | 336.53$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 55c | 228.03$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.46 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 30c | 200.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…d13abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 943 | 3.4%32 W · 911 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…352ebacked No | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 175 | 32%56 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 199.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.97 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4dd…737abacked Yes | 51c | 196.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…afb9backed Yes | 69c | 171.34$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.07 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf001…76c5backed No | 68c | 146.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.11 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbd…9d9ebacked Yes | 41c | 129.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 51c | 113.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 34c | 108.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 43c | 103.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…314cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes | 41c | 94.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 49c | 85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 66c | 70$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…618abacked Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…3eb4backed No | 33c | 63.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 58c | 56.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…3333backed Yes | 58c | 53.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 53c | 52.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked No | 79c | 50.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 50.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…7afabacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 122 | 37.7%46 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 53c | 46.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…7828backed Yes | 70c | 46.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 53c | 43.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a29…8b9ebacked No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…c505backed Yes | 50c | 40.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c61…dc3dbacked Yes | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…2859backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…0804backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…020abacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2008…db59backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4e…90ccbacked Yes | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on December 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on December 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on December 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.