Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x898c96c1bb4244bd88f7488cc03fb4ba7a5030a488e80b6379547b470460b125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0050…cad1backed Yes | 23c | 761.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.92 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 366.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 243.07$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 227.19$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x296e…0b9abacked Yes | 23c | 212.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 23c | 185.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 22c | 182$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 76c | 141$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 125.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 122$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…f290backed Yes | 28c | 118.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 23c | 107.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 96.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 87.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 83.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 27c | 81.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 26c | 77.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 26c | 69.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 77c | 65.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 25c | 51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 72c | 50.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 23c | 48.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 23c | 45.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…d76abacked No | 79c | 44.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 72c | 43.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 66c | 41.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 39.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…73e3backed No | 79c | 37.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Yes | 37c | 27.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 76c | 26.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 68c | 25.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 20.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked No | 76c | 19.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9653…02abbacked No | 74c | 19.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 58c | 18.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 72c | 17.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a8…a8b7backed No | 79c | 16.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed No | 64c | 16.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 76c | 15.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.