Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bd64a898436ec53f5b513ea99fcc5383fe3ba912e84f5959f020913476317d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 2,352$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.48 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 626.68$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.9 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 494.44$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…8a50backed Yes | 74c | 482.06$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.16 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 387.98$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.97 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 372.79$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 257.32$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 252.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 210.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 203.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.7 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 189.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 173.68$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cae…559abacked No | 65c | 159$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.35 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 156$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 24c | 148.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 66c | 138.82$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 131.96$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 126.77$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 122$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 36c | 107.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 107.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 102.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…72d2backed Yes | 40c | 100.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d30…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 44c | 99.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 96.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 96.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 41c | 95.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…3798backed Yes | 39c | 87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 84.8$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 81.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 34c | 72.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 72.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…b02abacked Yes | 42c | 71.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…f7edbacked No | 57c | 69.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…0bcebacked Yes | 38c | 69.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 63.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 63.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…548abacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 68c | 56.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 142 | 50.7%72 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355d…1052backed No | 68c | 54.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 68c | 53.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…838abacked No | 68c | 52.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…ca40backed No | 68c | 52.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 22c | 50.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…7da9backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 43c | 46.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7512…df3abacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…23a9backed No | 62c | 45.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 42.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 46c | 42.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed Yes | 35c | 41.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…ad42backed No | 67c | 39.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 63c | 38.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 80c | 37.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 62c | 37.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked Yes | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 35.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 36c | 34.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 39c | 34.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 34.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…ac74backed Yes | 40c | 33.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed Yes | 32c | 32.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a3…fbdcbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 29.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 29.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…173ebacked Yes | 43c | 28.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 27.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 43c | 25.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 24.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bb…e731backed No | 66c | 24.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…a0b1backed No | 62c | 24.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 66c | 22.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 66c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 68c | 20.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 20.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 20.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.