Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x899646dd126543b3b1a3406e81e445cc192176fe918e95445a0785e63f27a2ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof L1ga Team, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45e1…c872backed L1ga Team | 49c | 3,245$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.55 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc192…086cbacked Team Lynx | 33c | 999.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.99 | 145 | 38.6%56 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Team Lynx | 59c | 990.17$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.92 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Lynx | 62c | 958.73$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa81…44a9backed Team Lynx | 73c | 954.39$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Team Lynx | 33c | 949.96$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.47 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed L1ga Team | 67c | 804.48$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.8 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked L1ga Team | 42c | 588.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.97 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ab…eb07backed Team Lynx | 56c | 491.32$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.12 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…3a44backed L1ga Team | 63c | 436.51$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked L1ga Team | 16c | 400$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Team Lynx | 37c | 348.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed L1ga Team | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked L1ga Team | 11c | 290$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Team Lynx | 60c | 247.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Team Lynx | 45c | 237.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.43 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…2788backed L1ga Team | 44c | 230.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…a693backed L1ga Team | 6c | 229.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Team Lynx | 33c | 219.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.31 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked L1ga Team | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Team Lynx | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8e…349fbacked L1ga Team | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 156.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked L1ga Team | 36c | 116.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Team Lynx | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked L1ga Team | 67c | 87.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.19 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf016…b9c8backed L1ga Team | 43c | 86.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Team Lynx | 34c | 78.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd13…ed6fbacked L1ga Team | 66c | 75.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed L1ga Team | 69c | 69.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4eb…6b31backed Team Lynx | 38c | 68.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed L1ga Team | 52c | 65.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Team Lynx | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked L1ga Team | 62c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…300fbacked L1ga Team | 40c | 52.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…b8e6backed Team Lynx | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked L1ga Team | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked L1ga Team | 43c | 47.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9425…f025backed Team Lynx | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked L1ga Team | 28c | 45.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…576bbacked L1ga Team | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5585…dd3ebacked L1ga Team | 69c | 37.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…f9b5backed Team Lynx | 34c | 37.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed L1ga Team | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…7fa0backed Team Lynx | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…10dcbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca4…923dbacked L1ga Team | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c0…c6f9backed L1ga Team | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e11…8475backed Team Lynx | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.