La Liga · resolved market
Will Alaves vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x899ac1785130302fe817a4863dcfd7b24209a736491b9026b7758eac7f6e477a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 67c | 1,197$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.43 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 37c | 602.4$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.31 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -83%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 509.79$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.76 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 70c | 259.45$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.12 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 65c | 243.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.88 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked No | 71c | 230.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed No | 64c | 225$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0d…1d6dbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 33c | 197.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5595…12a8backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 238 | 55.9%133 W · 105 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Yes | 33c | 133.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 262 | 42.7%112 W · 150 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 202 | 55%111 W · 91 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Yes | 10c | 108.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fd…2c99backed Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…9b7bbacked Yes | 33c | 102$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 32c | 96.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked No | 76c | 88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 65 | 75.4%49 W · 16 L | +15.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked No | 76c | 82.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe720…0f1cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 57.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.12 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3c…e863backed No | 59c | 50.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 67c | 46.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 68c | 44.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 185 | 64.9%120 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…e115backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes | 40c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc88…9328backed No | 69c | 22.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alaves vs. Real Sociedad end in a draw?this page
- Will Alaves win on 2025-12-06?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-12-06?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.