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Weather · resolved market

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,612

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x09a8…47c1backed No40c393.54$156 inWon+$237.9943045.6%196 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f6…167ebacked Yes48c110$53 inLost-$52.812147.1%57 W · 64 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes60c100$60 inLost-$601,33550.9%680 W · 655 L-35.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes60c100$60 inLost-$601,27452.5%669 W · 605 L-17.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes60c82.25$49 inLost-$49.015563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes55c74.98$41 inLost-$41.241,17840.6%478 W · 700 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed7…e170backed No47c63.83$30 inWon+$33.832744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed No40c40$16 inWon+$2422116.7%37 W · 184 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b22…6f69backed No45c32.14$14 inWon+$17.723857.9%22 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No44c31.72$14 inWon+$17.721,93638.1%737 W · 1,199 L+296.8wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+23.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes55c30.54$17 inLost-$16.828142%118 W · 163 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4708…9580backed No52c30$16 inWon+$14.417538.9%68 W · 107 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No50c23.75$12 inWon+$11.954,73947.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L-186.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No77c22.2$17 inWon+$5.111,90155.9%1,062 W · 839 L-33.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbc…c072backed Yes62c21.99$14 inLost-$13.641540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes61c21.97$13 inLost-$13.49,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fb…d610backed Yes52c20$10 inLost-$10.43345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9629…ee15backed Yes60c20$12 inLost-$122441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes61c20$12 inLost-$12.214637.7%55 W · 91 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No52c20$10 inWon+$9.658658%340 W · 246 L-2.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37b8…0a05backed Yes63c20$13 inLost-$12.52147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked Yes51c20$10 inLost-$10.222045.9%101 W · 119 L-15.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes60c20$12 inLost-$1217058.8%100 W · 70 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No52c20$10 inWon+$9.694162.3%586 W · 355 L-24.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87db…e21ebacked Yes50c20$10 inLost-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453b…1764backed Yes60c20$12 inLost-$12966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dec…001ebacked Yes65c17.02$11 inLost-$115959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.