Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89b0e3ff382f1c5cc3feb7b531f2fae87bb10d74f94223f3a54f275a79918f6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 12c | 559.89$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 37c | 228.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 169.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 34c | 129.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 20c | 104.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 74c | 84.96$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 18c | 83.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 60c | 83.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 74.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 80c | 72.76$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 68.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…aba6backed Yes | 20c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 61c | 59.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 76c | 58.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 27c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…5898backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 32c | 53.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 23c | 52.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 73c | 51.91$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 39c | 51.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 50.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 39c | 48.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 30c | 44.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf829…e8adbacked No | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 77c | 39.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…e34cbacked No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +93.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…d6bbbacked No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…6e78backed Yes | 33c | 33.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc9…c353backed Yes | 36c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 40c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 63c | 25.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 77c | 24.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 77c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.