Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b14573dffd3ada5314e083906dfb91176e317a0013602697900523b84e3b6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 41c | 4,737$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,782.39 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4066…2407backed Yes | 7c | 1,793$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.09 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…ffe7backed Yes | 6c | 1,573$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,566.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 40c | 737.74$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 4c | 635.09$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.41 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed No | 21c | 629.61$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd16e…c43ebacked No | 41c | 581.34$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaccd…befdbacked No | 42c | 357.25$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 42c | 342.91$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 299.18$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 278.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 270.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff67…67d7backed Yes | 6c | 246.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,555.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 53c | 224.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 15c | 188.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dc…2222backed Yes | 7c | 167.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.7 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 24c | 99.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed Yes | 15c | 95.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.53 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 50c | 94.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 28c | 92.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.68 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 53c | 88.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 36c | 86.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 65c | 86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 64c | 81.82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.77 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked No | 68c | 74.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 15c | 73.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 27c | 69.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 42c | 68.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 67.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 64c | 62.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 67c | 59.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed No | 28c | 58.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 33c | 58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 50.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 29c | 50.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 45c | 44.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 43.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 61c | 40.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked No | 56c | 35.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 78c | 35.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 56c | 33.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked Yes | 35c | 33.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…663bbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 23.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 53c | 21.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 70c | 16.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked No | 69c | 16.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 36°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.