Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 60°F or higher on January 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89bc35f68bbb9ab26141b3cb11200074f0c785171d7a710f01dc3a5c7db7ab57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 25c | 1,385$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 4c | 259.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd989…0087backed Yes | 6c | 216.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed Yes | 43c | 112.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf60e…936dbacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 98.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…43e9backed Yes | 54c | 92.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 44c | 92.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 78c | 85.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…5d08backed No | 76c | 79.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5951…9346backed Yes | 67c | 78.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…a045backed Yes | 63c | 68.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 57c | 67.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…68d1backed No | 70c | 65.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 41c | 61.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee2…6580backed Yes | 59c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 42c | 56.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…0dcabacked Yes | 55c | 54.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4e…5d19backed Yes | 73c | 54.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97b9…1e9abacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d65…2061backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 49c | 49.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.29 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 42c | 49.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.93 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…76e9backed Yes | 61c | 49.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 47.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa86…422cbacked Yes | 53c | 47.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a2…7d48backed Yes | 60c | 45.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9c…65dcbacked No | 44c | 44.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 44c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 41c | 43.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 80c | 42.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 60c | 41.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…47cfbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…1e78backed Yes | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked Yes | 37c | 38.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fa…222bbacked Yes | 70c | 35.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…c716backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587a…1d3cbacked Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 58c | 32.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…03afbacked Yes | 64c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…031cbacked Yes | 59c | 31.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 40c | 31.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…23febacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…f11dbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…ac39backed Yes | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…e4c5backed Yes | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -10.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…72b8backed Yes | 53c | 29.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x307e…8118backed Yes | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf115…6c5ebacked No | 61c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…20ebbacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…65a5backed Yes | 54c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…b73abacked Yes | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 22.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xee1f…efeabacked Yes | 66c | 21.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445c…c0ffbacked Yes | 60c | 21.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbe…5d53backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1961…c204backed Yes | 59c | 18.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9385…afcfbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 60°F or higher on January 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 49°F or below on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on January 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 56-57°F on January 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 58-59°F on January 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.