UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89bcb1adfa746cf14100dd8a3b97ef8deb4f69b35bce525dc5319aa0d3ff32cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 58c | 15,552$9,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,019.87 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Under | 42c | 8,929$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,178.57 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 3,775$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.15 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 60c | 2,557$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.56 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc70…3c79backed Under | 52c | 1,949$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Under | 40c | 1,527$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.49 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Over | 46c | 840.61$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.68 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Under | 42c | 788.41$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Under | 42c | 523.81$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Over | 51c | 496.59$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.26 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Over | 56c | 433$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.48 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 61c | 252.69$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed Under | 42c | 217.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Under | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Under | 39c | 146.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Under | 39c | 145.72$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.89 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5f…480abacked Over | 61c | 120.72$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f44…bc79backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Under | 42c | 71.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 118 | 37.3%44 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed Over | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…eeabbacked Under | 40c | 47.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb90…c03dbacked Over | 59c | 37.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 62c | 29.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.33per pick | 60cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Over | 63c | 28.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 41c | 26.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…16e6backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 59c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Over | 59c | 20.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 59c | 20.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims)Édgar Cháirez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.