MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89be6dedb7cf6f4b600dae87e6a51ac44b5022ba5322fca486588f75248fcfc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 0c | 10,181$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 1,606$691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.58 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 44c | 1,314$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.48 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 57c | 1,302$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.67 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 57c | 1,149$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.93 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…61e8backed Over | 55c | 798.88$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.49 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 56c | 720.83$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.17 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 44c | 586.72$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.11 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69c2…40cfbacked Over | 51c | 570.94$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.76 | 182 | 39.6%72 W · 110 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 419.49$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.14 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 403.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 48c | 399.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.56 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 49c | 174.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 44c | 157.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 132.67$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 43c | 117.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 116.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 45c | 108.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 88.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 57c | 71.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 47c | 64.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 57c | 41.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 43c | 41.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 44c | 40.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 211 | 53.6%113 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Over | 49c | 40.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 43c | 40.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x758e…ad1cbacked Over | 56c | 38.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 53c | 38.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e96…f2debacked Under | 42c | 35.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 35c | 30.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 44c | 30.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1938…b662backed Under | 47c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Over | 57c | 29.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…f5babacked Over | 54c | 26.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 57c | 25.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 72c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.