MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5beecbb6ee97fe7dc13b94d71581e963367b1ccb3de2ceea8f24a49e3c6979f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 47c | 19,703$9,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,447.43 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 12,793$6,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,781.42 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Over | 43c | 4,573$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,611.73 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 3,864$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,202.4 | 155 | 50.3%78 W · 77 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 46c | 2,150$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 41c | 1,897$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,126.31 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 54c | 1,777$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.11 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 37c | 1,643$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.07 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 53c | 1,157$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.2 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 53c | 1,157$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.2 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 55c | 947.16$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.29 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 598.14$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 53c | 473.17$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Under | 54c | 462$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 46c | 443.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.77 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 354.71$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 58c | 334.41$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.98 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Over | 37c | 298.19$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…d9f3backed Over | 42c | 229.81$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 228 | 51.3%117 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…ea91backed Over | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 174.72$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 45c | 164.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 53c | 137.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 54c | 137.11$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 48c | 125.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 118.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Over | 41c | 110.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 41c | 104.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Under | 58c | 102.48$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 56c | 97.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 37c | 77.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…a399backed Under | 64c | 76.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…f5a3backed Under | 68c | 66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 57c | 65.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Over | 32c | 63.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…5ab3backed Under | 54c | 42.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 52c | 38.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…8333backed Over | 47c | 27.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…405abacked Under | 53c | 21.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 19.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4a17backed Under | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.