MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x689302e5249b0e261f1bd2b2202000ae5ef0be4fe3058f6bb7b09a583eb96666
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Milwaukee Brewers, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fd2…1c0cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 8,821$3,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,528.24 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 8,698$5,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.37 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…e372backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 2,174$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 1,562$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.52 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…4f26backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 1,500$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 800$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 723$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.2 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 619.61$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.83 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 567.5$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 539.48$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.79 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 459.41$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.21 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 441.03$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.41 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 400$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 310$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 261.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.85 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 222.32$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | -13.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 192.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 166.36$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…c484backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 148.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 123.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 122.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…4fd0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 106.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 103.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 101.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 66.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 61.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 59.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 54.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 53.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 50.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecf…9148backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 43.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…4db7backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 27.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Kansas City Royals | 77c | 21.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Kansas City Royals | 67c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.