South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d0e72c7ed21dc8d63266926cfa04b5f03d8542d1e10d1e8b84cd99d9d26d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 77c | 18,967$14,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,548.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 9,805$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,374.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 65c | 2,926$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.43 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 2,448$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.34 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 28c | 2,385$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,705.42 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 25c | 2,080$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.74 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed Yes | 22c | 946.22$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 75c | 554.32$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.74 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e5…9401backed Yes | 26c | 381.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 42c | 339$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.47 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 27c | 338.44$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.18 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…6027backed Yes | 23c | 262.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 217.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 39c | 203$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 186.33$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.61 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 179.22$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.72 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 34c | 116.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 26c | 82.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 52c | 81.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 67c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 40c | 68.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed No | 53c | 57.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed No | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 55c | 37.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 39c | 30.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 48c | 29.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.