South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a4677adcabfdca6253f84cd1886c1d7e2f5766388bb8522677c5d20b1278b53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 23c | 20,090$4,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,653.96 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 8,809$6,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.71 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed No | 77c | 4,176$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.48 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 25c | 4,025$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 76c | 3,519$2,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.21 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 3,050$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.5 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,730$2,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.79 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2b…1fc6backed No | 77c | 2,663$2,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.59 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 23c | 2,236$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.29 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,932$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.48 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…6027backed Yes | 7c | 1,336$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 23c | 1,263$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.5 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 80c | 1,231$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.19 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 77c | 1,000$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 79c | 781$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.88 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…1b6abacked Yes | 8c | 486.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 408$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 76c | 400.06$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 322$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0f…a571backed Yes | 22c | 266.41$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed No | 77c | 232.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 26.2%27 W · 76 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 8c | 211$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 187 | 42.2%79 W · 108 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…3223backed Yes | 24c | 209.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…2f2dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 9c | 194.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…8e64backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 76c | 114.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…2832backed Yes | 12c | 111.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…c94cbacked Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…3b34backed Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…409ebacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…bc3cbacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 77c | 46.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Yes | 24c | 44.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed No | 78c | 38.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b2…2658backed No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed No | 77c | 13.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-07?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.