South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0dc63faa2cd8f298d89ff297d481158d09c33d54f22bf9cdda52879d162c477e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Yes | 50c | 7,500$3,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,775 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 5,815$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,956.54 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 51c | 4,995$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.38 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 2,922$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.58 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 49c | 2,500$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 2,379$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200.3 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 50c | 2,324$1,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.15 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 55c | 1,984$1,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.5 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d2…6027backed Yes | 79c | 1,623$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 51c | 1,032$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.16 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.05 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 49c | 868.69$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.45 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 31c | 743$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.44 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.56 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 50c | 542.22$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.02 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…2a5fbacked No | 46c | 527.55$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.88 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 54c | 500.98$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.59 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 49c | 402.95$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.36 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 381.33$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 53c | 242$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 234 | 35%82 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Yes | 52c | 222.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Yes | 48c | 178.94$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 49c | 159.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 21c | 142.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.79 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 50c | 133.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 47c | 123.84$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 17c | 115.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa6…39dbbacked Yes | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Yes | 45c | 106.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…16c1backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…754abacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 120 | 65%78 W · 42 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…f7cdbacked Yes | 51c | 94.12$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 58c | 85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.64 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 38c | 68.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 25c | 63.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…bc3cbacked Yes | 50c | 55.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…857dbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd117…96edbacked Yes | 74c | 36.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 48c | 33.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 59c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd88…2b47backed Yes | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…0509backed Yes | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…f8c4backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-07?this page
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2026-02-07?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.