Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89d4c1326c68a96a58ccdd045f81bbf77642cc8d4bed0c9c6ce0bb898b66cfe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 618.24$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 614.87$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 414.34$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 49c | 390$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.97 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…894abacked Yes | 52c | 335.32$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 55c | 321.03$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.82 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 57c | 222.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.33 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 70c | 169.11$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 45c | 145.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 48c | 144.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 66c | 114$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 113.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 21c | 109.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 53c | 107.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 48c | 102.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…4f8fbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…7381backed Yes | 40c | 99.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 47c | 96.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 46c | 93.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 92.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 39c | 87.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 55c | 86.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 44c | 86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 59c | 81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 72 | 81.9%59 W · 13 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 61c | 78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 54c | 70.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 62c | 70.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 52c | 68.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 55c | 67.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed No | 57c | 65.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 47c | 63.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 47c | 61.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed No | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 56c | 56.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 49c | 52.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 60c | 51.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 49c | 49.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 57c | 48.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 42c | 47.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 54c | 47.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bca…c6dabacked No | 47c | 46.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 45.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 61c | 44.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 42.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 47c | 42.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.3 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 48c | 42.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…90f0backed No | 49c | 40.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 38c | 40.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5169…0ec3backed Yes | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 37.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 47c | 37.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 53c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…1e65backed Yes | 58c | 35.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 40c | 35.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked Yes | 42c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 55c | 34.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 31.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f3…f816backed No | 48c | 31.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 31.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 39c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 46c | 27.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 64c | 27.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…022ebacked Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…35c9backed No | 65c | 22.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked No | 59c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…2990backed Yes | 53c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed No | 63c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.