TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,314

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,139 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes46c618.24$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.4910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No48c614.87$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.288,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes42c414.34$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.588,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No49c390$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.9715966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1160…894abacked Yes52c335.32$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.07911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes55c321.03$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.822,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No57c222.41$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.331,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5484…84e8backed No70c169.11$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.4511169.4%77 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No45c145.87$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.2238243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes48c144.57$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c114$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes45c113.28$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.632,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes21c109.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes53c107.47$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.341,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes48c102.66$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8719137.2%71 W · 120 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfff1…5e20backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed Yes52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.6616135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe646…4f8fbacked Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…7381backed Yes40c99.41$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes47c96.52$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0123668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes46c93.46$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.982,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No46c92.25$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.094,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes39c87.65$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes55c86.13$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3781558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x63b0…4122backed No44c86$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.948561.2%52 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc17…886abacked No59c81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.837281.9%59 W · 13 L+8.8wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+18.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes43c80$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.429443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes61c78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5847738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes54c70.86$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.262035%7 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x937d…ec25backed Yes62c70.65$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No52c68.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6376924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes55c67.27$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.731,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed No57c65.34$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3843540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No47c63.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.561,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No47c61.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.641,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d3b…3a20backed No66c60.61$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6116937.3%63 W · 106 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No56c56.83$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9621340.8%87 W · 126 L+23.8wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+34%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No49c52.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.325,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No60c51.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5637570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4860550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes49c49.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.061,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes57c48.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.923,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d84…2c67backed Yes42c47.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes54c47.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8887437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bca…c6dabacked No47c46.22$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No50c45.63$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.73,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed Yes61c44.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3357150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes43c42.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e88…697dbacked Yes47c42.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208343.4%36 W · 47 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No47c42.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.311163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1570…de29backed No48c42.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0844058.2%256 W · 184 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb437…90f0backed No49c40.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.741526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes38c40.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.261,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.816148.4%78 W · 83 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked No57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5169…0ec3backed Yes55c38.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No62c37.95$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.423,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc9…d91cbacked Yes53c37.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202080%16 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x135c…7c21backed No47c37.64$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.953447.1%16 W · 18 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-27.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No53c37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4564167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x290e…1e65backed Yes58c35.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.781145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes40c35.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1159144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb80c…827bbacked Yes42c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.727754.9%152 W · 125 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes55c34.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.232,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8e7…b9a1backed Yes58c34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.582133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x23e8…9373backed No60c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85675%42 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No63c31.59$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.572,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f3…f816backed No48c31.1$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.286651.5%34 W · 32 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes53c31.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.42,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No50c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1325868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x094a…a9d2backed Yes39c28.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0929219.5%57 W · 235 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes46c27.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.742555.1%234 W · 191 L+13.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No64c27.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8553951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x970d…022ebacked Yes58c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.513845.7%63 W · 75 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5937…35c9backed No65c22.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.041384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick65cpaid+29.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd746…2c6fbacked No59c22.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.114746.9%69 W · 78 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed Yes58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.621950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes56c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.274023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf418…2990backed Yes53c19.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d2…f6e2backed No63c16.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.882748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.