Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8014eef75e2d340b315286e92cf4953a5a12ee979df1e4de386c3685179b5cd1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,059$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.5 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…0f4dbacked Yes | 41c | 393.59$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.9 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 221.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.27 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 44c | 221.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.34 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef32…265cbacked Yes | 79c | 180.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 154.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 72c | 131.82$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e40…2e56backed Yes | 39c | 126.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 75c | 124.4$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 122.28$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 115.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 59c | 110.36$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 39c | 110$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 36c | 103.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.77 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9b…77b6backed Yes | 40c | 101.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…3c70backed Yes | 40c | 99.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +178.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 98.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…6544backed Yes | 40c | 97.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +182.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 63c | 92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 81.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 74.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…869fbacked Yes | 29c | 69.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c65…2e0dbacked Yes | 59c | 67.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 59c | 66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 64c | 62.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 61.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 71c | 59.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 54c | 58.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 37c | 58.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 58.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 59c | 57.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 74c | 57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…2c6fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2057…0629backed No | 75c | 52.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5be…bc54backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 75c | 47.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 33c | 45.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 43c | 38.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 64c | 35.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 61c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 73c | 31.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 38c | 31.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 49c | 28.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 57c | 26.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 47c | 26.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 59c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed Yes | 42c | 25.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc06…bc87backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5a…a270backed No | 61c | 21.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8de4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 58c | 19.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 19.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 19.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C or higher on July 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.