Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89e870846df29667946d133157a1aa1cb073a6216426669a526e1c10f6ab0a10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 24c | 985.45$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.44 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 76c | 554$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 360.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 258.54$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 249.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 202.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 15c | 180.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 134.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 14c | 118.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 74c | 101.01$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 91.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 16c | 80.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 69c | 77.45$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 72c | 69.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 63.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 76c | 57.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 29c | 54.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 29c | 34.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 31.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 29.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 71c | 22.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…ddfebacked No | 72c | 20.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 73c | 19.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed No | 72c | 15.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 71c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 72c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f0…7d92backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.