Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90e6e7fe5337b16c8e7fc7cfcc4d41bfddae54de49684e451212b48cd76e6d95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,010$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.42 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 679.76$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 595.12$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 22c | 514.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 498.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 297.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 74c | 250.94$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 24c | 230.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 226$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 15c | 220.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 54c | 208.89$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 200.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 18c | 196.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 62c | 158.16$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 25c | 145.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 28c | 139$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 130$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 127.66$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 27c | 112.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 64c | 111.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 108.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 46c | 90.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 35c | 89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 70c | 86.21$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 52c | 84.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 79.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 66c | 67.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 33c | 66.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 75c | 66.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 76c | 65.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 64c | 62.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 26c | 61.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 22c | 60.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 26c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 49.63$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 35c | 33.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 62c | 33.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 31.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 73c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6d…4abebacked No | 65c | 26.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 67c | 25.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 50c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4b…8176backed No | 53c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 78c | 17.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.